Evidence 101

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Tuesday, August 20, 2013

MORE GUNS, LESS CRIME..all about the book

After my challenge yesterday, Fargo's Brilliant One accepted my offer and in about 2.5 seconds had responded. I delayed posting this just so he didn't look so smart. If you aren't interested in gun laws, gun control, or the 2nd Amendment, I fear you are missing a huge mark in politics which is going to greatly effect our country. Guns are not just about a device. It's about something much more deep rooted, involving our Constitutional Rights, freedoms, economics, and crime. I could go on about the trickle down theory and how important each of our rights is to us, whether we choose to exercise them or not. At least they are there, for the choosing. For now. 

CHECK OUT YURI'S THOROUGH ANSWERS ON HIS BLOG...

Yuri's brain at work...stand by for dramatic details...I am sure this is not the end. I am going to add my "2 cents" in blue. Yuri is in red. 


Okay...finished.

Do I agree/disagree with the author's research, studies, and opinion on the economics of gun control? Yes.

Do you believe he has proven his theory with enough evidence to support it? Yes.

My favorite parts:

1) His critics misinterpret their own data, which actually confirms his thesis. 

My thoughts from the cop perspective...critics often skew or misinterpret their own data. I think it is more than just sneaky politics. I really think they don't understand, nor do they care to because they have such a close minded approach to these issues. Opinions?

2) Catching his critic cherry picking Guns&Ammo sales data to reach a forgone conclusion. 

Yes. We all have seen the sales data in one fashion or another, ( I hope),  and we think we know what it shows us, but some choose to put their own spin on things. Yuri, you go first if you will on this subject, because I think it is important. ..if you would accept another discussion challenge, that is. Let's talk about the sales data and what it really means. 

In addition to what the author is talking about here ( I will put some data up on another post later) ...Let's look at from a manufacturer side, public side, gun owner side, crime side...What is really going on out there? Is it the panic of the public? Is it government buy ups? Is it a dirty scandal? Is it really supply and demand? Are the manufacturing companies or the government bamboozling Americans? Are people really arming themselves? Doomsdayers? Preppers? What changed to amp it up again? Meat and potatoes. 

I mean...I look at shelves...they are empty. Empty of guns. Empty of ammo. Unless I want to fork out a lot of dough for a trap shotgun (which I would LOOOOVVVEEE to own), there is nothing out there for grabs.

Things I did not know but make sense:

1) Substitution crime effect. Increase in petty crime with a relaxation of gun carry laws. Violent crimes are reduced, but larceny and property crimes increase. 

Chiefs have been telling city government officials this for years and tried reaching public support by submitting annual reports for public viewing...which I believe is still good. The problem is, the people ( all walks) look at violent crime going down...oh, we need less cops. We have a great area. They aren't contributing it to the correct factors that changed crime. It isn't that people are starting to be good. It's that the criminals are more wary of gun toting Americans. More ammo. People are fed up with criminals and are fighting back with weapons. More alarms. More cops. It can all be attributed to this cluster of factors. However, the one that can always be tracked and ALWAYS changes crime...gun laws. 

It isn't drugs. 

It isn't big dogs. 


It isn't motion lights. 


It's not just guns. It's gun carry laws.


It's also a positive influence on crime when the laws are in favor of the 2nd Amendment right to carry. Gun control laws...just sell more guns, puts more money in the hands of retailers and manufacturers..and places uneasy panic in society. 


Look at how well Wyoming works. And Wyoming has a bad drug problem, but the gun carry laws have drastically changed the crime happenings. 

Look at how bad gun carry laws do NOT work...ie. Chicago. Talk about a need for martial law. (Never thought I would say that)  People are scared there. FOR A REASON. I have stayed in the projects. YIKES!

2)Increased crime in Neighboring areas after a relaxation of gun carry laws. Criminals still do crime, but target an area that is perceived as soft. Similar to the substitution effect.

Yes. Again...cops have known that for years. 

Is there a particular part of the study you want to talk about?

Yuri, why isn't this knowledge, or this study, or studies like this hitting home with politicians? Why aren't Americans "buying" into it?  What is their agenda? Why are gun control and gun carry laws so forefront on the political hot seat and chopping block? It can't be because of a few mass shootings. 

What is REALLY going on? Why doesn't the public get what is so easy for me to absorb and see, having been a cop and seeing the inside of what makes crime tick? 

9 comments:

Well Seasoned Fool said...

Am I the only one who sees a cause and effect between higher incarceration rates and less violent crime?

Prisons are costly, to be sure, but is there a net societal gain factoring in lower costs from lower crime?

Momma Fargo said...

No. I believe that is true. If there is a consequence to their actions, and it is carried out, they are less likely to commit the crime, or get caught by being a smarter criminal. If you looked at the jackets of some hard felons, you would see that during the early 90s when they got put away for certain things it was for a long time. When sentencing slacked up...crime went up. Then they enforced harsh sentencing for certain crimes, less for murder. Huh? Makes no sense. I just know you are likely to spend more time in jail for drugs or raping a child than for murder. That is only because there has recently been a change in child crimes. Otherwise, you had free reign over children in years past. Not so much now. Other crimes still have problems. Punishment should fit the crime. Law 101. And jail is good.

I agree that we can't put a price on people's safety and quality of life. However, politicians do. Prison reform is long overdue... again.

RussianBear said...

The sales data I was referring to is the Guns&Ammo magazine sales that a critic was using to try and correlate to gun ownership and therefore people carrying. The author notes that American Handgunner or Handgun Magazine would be more representative of a permit holders than the more generic Guns&Ammo. Out of those three publications, only Guns&Ammo had a trend, if you can call it that, where more guns = more crime. The critics argument is BS to begin with, magazine readership does not equal permit holder. Even worse, this was the only periodical were increased readership correlated with increased crime.

For sales of actual guns and ammo..that's a whole 'nother ball o' wax.

RussianBear said...

Well Seasoned Fool, it makes sense that keeping violent offenders locked up longer should reduce the crime rate, especially those committed by repeat offenders. I don't know if there's been a study like Lott's to correlate incarceration rates with costs of crime.

Part of the problem is you'd have to assume a certain recidivist rate from parolees, or make an assumption about the number of crimes that a person who isn't locked up would commit over a given time span.

Another variable to consider is the rate at which new violent offenders appear.

Momma Fargo said...

RussianBear,

Thank you. I got confused. Sorry. I still like the question if you like to answer.

RussianBear said...

Okay...Supply and Demand and mistrust of our leaders.

On the gun side we saw a panic buy after '08 elections. Things had settled out pretty much by October 2012. 22lr was plentiful, a Ruger 10/22 could be had for less than $150 bucks.

Two events quickly followed, '12 election results and Sandy Hook. 22lr is almost an endangered species of ammunition.

Anecdotal stories abound of people waiting to get an AR, finally pulling the trigger on their purchase after Sandy Hook.

The NICS data support a huge buying spree. This is a response from a public who has seen a president disregard the law--(Chrysler bondholders, how's that bankruptcy law working for you?) and bend it at his whim --("Affordable Care Act" waivers / delays of implementation). Preppers already have theirs, they probably sold off some surplus at the height of the panic.

I think we have a lot of new gun owners. The ammunition supply side is being crimped a little by the military destruction of spent brass. But the bulk of it is demand.

For a while the shelves were bare in my area except for 1911s. Now handguns can be had in just about every caliber. ARs are in limited supply still, unless you want one with all the bells and whistles with a price to match. The $500-$800 plain janes are gone.

Haven't seen any .223/5.56 ammo anywhere. 12GA target loads are plentiful.

If Bloomberg was honest about his groups name, "Mayors Against Illegal Guns," shouldn't he be pushing for the repeal of all gun laws?

Momma Fargo said...

RussianBear,

Ah...you and I agree that election changes economics. So does the stock market. So do mass disasters. Why is handgun ammo flying off the shelves? Are they the guns of choice right now for self protection? Why don't we have a rush of shotgun purchases, which, I might add is my gun of choice? Size matters.

I think Bloomberg has lost his way.

Overall, I think you might be on to something. What about open carry states? Thoughts? Are they going to far back into freedom and rights? Or are they on the right track?

RussianBear said...

I think the combination of a large number of states passing open carry and shall-issue conceal permits with the perceived threat to ban magazines of a certain size has pushed the demand for handgun ammo in certain sizes. 1911s were never in short supply, they only hold 7 or 8 rounds so were not at risk of being banned, with the exception of some Para Ordanance models.

Shotguns are too difficult to conceal :-). I've had a Remington 870 Marine Magnum for over 15yrs in the house. But it's not the first thing I would grab anymore. Now I would go for a FNH-FNX 45. I'm saving up for a light to mount on it. Maybe a light/laser combo.

My wife and older children can handle the pistol a lot easier than the shotgun. There's also the question of what load to use in the shotgun. 00 may over-penetrate the drywall in my home. #4 may be a better choice. Birdshot is just too light I think.

Going too far with freedom? As Lott shows in his book, having a larger number of armed citizens doesn't descend us into anarchy. Now if Illinois will just get their act together so I don't have to unload and lock my pistol in the trunk when I drive through, then we'll be on the right track.

RussianBear said...

Oh...just got an email from Midway USA having 5.56 ammo in stock..so I think the panic is almost subsided. Unless the Lane shooting in Oklahoma stirs up another push for restrictions.